Aspiring entrepreneurs often fall into two extreme mindsets. Some overanalyze everything and never make progress, while others "just ship" random products without any strategic thought. The latter approach is preferable because it means you're at least taking shots. But neither extreme is ideal. Just like in poker, the best strategy for founders is "tight aggressive"—be selective about what you work on, and when you do commit, pursue it with full intensity.

The "just ship it" mindset leads to wasted energy on projects that have almost no chance of succeeding. On the flip side, overanalyzing can result in paralysis and missed opportunities. The key is to balance both by using quick napkin math to weigh the odds of success, potential payoffs, and the costs involved. Estimating the expected value helps founders decide which projects are worth pursuing, avoiding the trap of betting on everything or nothing.

Once you've identified a promising project, it's critical to go all in. No half-measures or second-guessing. Building a successful business means committing to your best ideas, giving them your full focus, and not stopping until it's clear you've won or lost. This "tight aggressive" approach helps you stay focused and gives you the best chance of making meaningful progress.

To put simply:

Once you commit to a startup, it's all about bias to action. You win by throwing lots of things on the wall and seeing what sticks. You don't win by academic armchair analysis-paralysis.